by Dr. Prospero E. de Vera
I was surfing the world wide web last night when I stumbled upon an interview I gave in The Correspondents show entitled Ang Laban Ni Noynoy that was shown when Noynoy Aquino launched his candidacy late last year.
I argued in that show (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzDRZgzvZ6A&feature=related) and (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKBZx0tC9RY&feature=related) that Noynoy's legislative performance paled in comparison with the other presidential candidates and that the fact that he has not produced a single law will be raised against him as the campaign period shifts into high gear.
As expected, his poor legislative record has become an extremely heavy albatross that has weighed down his campaign. Many columnists and bloggers have made fun of this situation by saying that the much maligned Senator Lito Lapid is more qualified to become President than Noynoy Aquino because he has, at least, produced one law (RA 9999) that would give tax perks to private law firms that render free legal service to poor clients.
In a portion of his official website called The Truth About Noynoy: Huwag Magpalinlang Sa Mga Sabi Sabi (http://www.noynoy.ph/anti-smear/), Noynoy Aquino's supporters answered the question - Wala ba Talagang Nagawa si Noynoy sa Lehislatura? - this way:
"CLAIM: Walang ginawa si Noynoy habang nakaupo sa senado, at hindi sapat ang kanyang mga hinain para sa serbisyong pampubliko.
TRUTH: Senator Aquino’s legislative record is filled with laws that push for transparency, accountability, curbing corruption and leveling the playing field so that special relationships do not take precedence over quality public service. A good lawmaker must not be judged solely on the number of laws penned, but the quality of these laws in the interest of the public good. Congress is a democratic institution that is also meant to guard against government excesses. Aquino believes we already have many good laws, and what is needed is proper enforcement."
There is something wrong, funny, and misleading about this statement.
1. Official records of the Senate and House of Representatives show that none of Noynoy Aquino's principally authored bills have been enacted into law. Then how can his official website say "Senator Aquino’s legislative record is filled with laws that push for transparency, accountability, curbing corruption and leveling the playing field..."?
A bill is not the same as a law. Thousands of bills are filed every year but very few of these bills get enacted into a law. Bills become law because their authors work hard to pass these through committee, defend its merits on the floor, get their colleagues to vote for their bills on second and third readings, and work with their House of Representatives counterparts to reconcile differences in the Senate and House versions.
Is this poor staff work or simply an attempt to mislead the public?
2. "A good lawmaker must not be judged solely on the number of laws penned, but the quality of these laws in the interest of the public good." True. But if a lawmaker has not even passed a single law, how can he be judged whether his laws are in the interest of the public good?
3. "Aquino believes we already have many good laws, and what is needed is proper enforcement." He may believe this, but this is not a factual statement. Let me enumerate several important bills that need to be enacted into law but continue to languish in the Senate because Senators have been unwilling to act on these:
- The Omnibus Amendments to the Local Government Code (Senate Bill No. 1161) that would correct many of the problems facing the country such as the rampant conversion of municipalities into cities and promote more devolution;
- The National Land Use Code (SBN 3426/843/641/82/76) which would serve as a blueprint for the prioritization and utilization of the country’s land and resources, protect agricultural lands from industrial activities as well as residential conversions, and delineate environmentally protected lands and indigenous peoples’ ancestral lands.
- Civil Service Code of the Philippines (Senate Bill No. 1162) that professionalizes the government bureaucracy and protects it from political interference.
- Freedom of Information Act that will allow citizens to access government documents to combat corruption and hold government officials accountable for their actions.
And the list goes on and on and on...
Poor staff work? or Misleading public relations spin to hide poor legislative performance?
You be the judge.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
The Latest Surveys: Here We Go Again!!
Dr. Prospero E. de Vera
The latest Pulse Asia, Manila Standard, and Business World-SWS surveys have generated a new round of analysis, and counter analysis, from supporters and spokesmen of the presidential candidates.
Last night, Tina Monzon-Palma invited me to her show Talk Back to analyze the latest Pulse Asia survey results. I was joined by Pulse Asia President Ronnie Holmes, Aquino campaign spokesman Edwin Lacierda, Gibo Teodoro media head Mike Toledo, and the venerable Ernie Maceda who is Erap Estrada's campaign manager.
The Pulse Asia February 21-25 survey (http://www.pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=710) declared that Aquino has reclaimed the lead over Villar by a 7 percent margin (36%-29%), that Estrada gained 6% points (12%-18%), and Gibo Teodoro ratings marginally increased to 7% from the January 2010 survey.
Pulse Asia in its media release also stated that the survey was conducted during a period dominated by the following: (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar in the Senate reiterating his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy; (2) Senator Panfilo M. Lacson’s departure from the country; (3) official start of the campaign period for national positions; (4) COMELEC’s decision to unseat Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio; (5) declaration of Lakas-Kampi CMD to field President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as its bet for House Speaker in the 15th Congress; (6) arrest of the Morong 43; (7) onset of the El Niño phenomenon; (8) increase in power rates and fluctuations in oil prices; and (9) occurrence of rotating brownouts in different parts of the country and the proposal to grant President Arroyo emergency powers to deal with the energy crisis.
The central questions asked in the show were - Are surveys helping you choose the next president? What and how do the strategists of the candidates use the survey results for their campaign?
While I didn't expect any new earth shaking analysis from Prof. Ronnie Holmes (the Pulse website contains enough analysis and tables), I did expect some new spins from the spokesmen of Aquino, Teodoro, or Estrada.
I was pleasantly surprised by Mike Toledo's grasp of the historical mis-steps by survey groups here and in the US, and his questions on how data gathering can be done in war torn areas.
Manong Ernie was at his best defending Estrada from the "too old" tag given by television viewers, Erap's "Mindanao message", and his sniping of both Aquino and Villar's "saturation" point.
What startled me was the spin given by the Aquino camp when asked about the decrease in Villar's support level. Consistent with his previous media statements, Edwin Lacierda declared that the decrease in Villar's ratings was due to his failure to answer the C-5 corruption allegations. According to Lacierda, the end-January survey did not fully capture the public sentiment about the issue but this new survey has clearly shown that the controversy has affected Villar's ratings.
As a UP Professor who has taught research methods in the graduate school over the past three decades I was shocked by this blatantly misleading analysis and twisting of facts.
If any of my students makes an incorrect interpretation of data he/she would definitely flunk my class!
During the Talk Back show, I had to categorically assert that:
1. Survey groups routinely describe the events happening when a survey is conducted to give the context under which voters preference is generated;
2. But it is impossible to do a one-on-one correlation between certain events (such as the C-5 controversy) and voter's presidential preference (choosing Villar or not). Pulse Asia never claims that there was a correlation. Unfortunately, some campaign spokesmen, and sometimes even the media, make this wrong correlation; and
3. Any such correlation is nothing more than media spin made by supporters of candidates. It is not supported by any empirical or statistical evidence.
If you want to test such a correlation, you have to ask each of the 1,800 survey respondents three questions:
First, are they aware of the C-5 controversy?
Second, among those who are aware, do they believe that the C-5 project is graft ridden? and do they believe Villar is guilty of the allegations of graft and corruption in his sponsorship of the C-5 project?
And third, for those who believe that Villar is guilty, will they vote for him as President if elections were held now?
Then you have to ask the same series of questions for all the other ten events mentioned by Pulse Asia in order to separate the C-5 event vis-a-vis all the other events occurring during the survey period.
Any freshman student of Statistics 101 would know this.
The most recent Manila Standard survey (http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNews.htm?f=2010/march/8/news1.isx&d=2010/march/8) of 2,500 registered voters, and the Business World-SWS survey done during the same survey period says that Villar and Aquino are statistically tied!!
C-5 controvery? Mindanao message? It will be interesting to see how the campaign spokesmen explain or spin this!!
The latest Pulse Asia, Manila Standard, and Business World-SWS surveys have generated a new round of analysis, and counter analysis, from supporters and spokesmen of the presidential candidates.
Last night, Tina Monzon-Palma invited me to her show Talk Back to analyze the latest Pulse Asia survey results. I was joined by Pulse Asia President Ronnie Holmes, Aquino campaign spokesman Edwin Lacierda, Gibo Teodoro media head Mike Toledo, and the venerable Ernie Maceda who is Erap Estrada's campaign manager.
The Pulse Asia February 21-25 survey (http://www.pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=710) declared that Aquino has reclaimed the lead over Villar by a 7 percent margin (36%-29%), that Estrada gained 6% points (12%-18%), and Gibo Teodoro ratings marginally increased to 7% from the January 2010 survey.
Pulse Asia in its media release also stated that the survey was conducted during a period dominated by the following: (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar in the Senate reiterating his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension project controversy; (2) Senator Panfilo M. Lacson’s departure from the country; (3) official start of the campaign period for national positions; (4) COMELEC’s decision to unseat Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio; (5) declaration of Lakas-Kampi CMD to field President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as its bet for House Speaker in the 15th Congress; (6) arrest of the Morong 43; (7) onset of the El Niño phenomenon; (8) increase in power rates and fluctuations in oil prices; and (9) occurrence of rotating brownouts in different parts of the country and the proposal to grant President Arroyo emergency powers to deal with the energy crisis.
The central questions asked in the show were - Are surveys helping you choose the next president? What and how do the strategists of the candidates use the survey results for their campaign?
While I didn't expect any new earth shaking analysis from Prof. Ronnie Holmes (the Pulse website contains enough analysis and tables), I did expect some new spins from the spokesmen of Aquino, Teodoro, or Estrada.
I was pleasantly surprised by Mike Toledo's grasp of the historical mis-steps by survey groups here and in the US, and his questions on how data gathering can be done in war torn areas.
Manong Ernie was at his best defending Estrada from the "too old" tag given by television viewers, Erap's "Mindanao message", and his sniping of both Aquino and Villar's "saturation" point.
What startled me was the spin given by the Aquino camp when asked about the decrease in Villar's support level. Consistent with his previous media statements, Edwin Lacierda declared that the decrease in Villar's ratings was due to his failure to answer the C-5 corruption allegations. According to Lacierda, the end-January survey did not fully capture the public sentiment about the issue but this new survey has clearly shown that the controversy has affected Villar's ratings.
As a UP Professor who has taught research methods in the graduate school over the past three decades I was shocked by this blatantly misleading analysis and twisting of facts.
If any of my students makes an incorrect interpretation of data he/she would definitely flunk my class!
During the Talk Back show, I had to categorically assert that:
1. Survey groups routinely describe the events happening when a survey is conducted to give the context under which voters preference is generated;
2. But it is impossible to do a one-on-one correlation between certain events (such as the C-5 controversy) and voter's presidential preference (choosing Villar or not). Pulse Asia never claims that there was a correlation. Unfortunately, some campaign spokesmen, and sometimes even the media, make this wrong correlation; and
3. Any such correlation is nothing more than media spin made by supporters of candidates. It is not supported by any empirical or statistical evidence.
If you want to test such a correlation, you have to ask each of the 1,800 survey respondents three questions:
First, are they aware of the C-5 controversy?
Second, among those who are aware, do they believe that the C-5 project is graft ridden? and do they believe Villar is guilty of the allegations of graft and corruption in his sponsorship of the C-5 project?
And third, for those who believe that Villar is guilty, will they vote for him as President if elections were held now?
Then you have to ask the same series of questions for all the other ten events mentioned by Pulse Asia in order to separate the C-5 event vis-a-vis all the other events occurring during the survey period.
Any freshman student of Statistics 101 would know this.
The most recent Manila Standard survey (http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNews.htm?f=2010/march/8/news1.isx&d=2010/march/8) of 2,500 registered voters, and the Business World-SWS survey done during the same survey period says that Villar and Aquino are statistically tied!!
C-5 controvery? Mindanao message? It will be interesting to see how the campaign spokesmen explain or spin this!!
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Spinning Survey Results
Dr. Prospero E. de Vera
Last December 14, 2009 I reacted strongly to a Philippine Star banner story that read - Noynoy's lead in opinion polls drops, Gibo's rating surges - The Center - which claimed that there was a dramatic increase in voter support for Gibo Teodoro due to "the strength of his bold decisions on the Maguindanao massacre and his impressive showing in two presidential debates".
The newspaper headline was based on a survey made by a certain Issues and Advocacy Center headed by Ed Malay which showed that Aquino has a voter support of only 30 percent, Villar has 23 percent, and Teodoro 10 percent.
Malay was quoted as saying that the debates had harmed Noynoy because (these) "exposed the weakness and lack of depth on the basic issues by the neophyte senator when ranged against a more knowledgeable and experienced candidate such as Teodoro who topped the 1985 bar exams.” He also said that there was a detectable "stationary dive" in Aquino ratings and predicted a further tightening of the presidential race in 2010.
My reaction was carried by Philippine Star (http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=533342) and Manila Standard (http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNews.htm?f=2009/december/17/news3.isx&d=/2009/december/17) on December 17, 2009. I criticized the disturbing inconsistency of this survey result with those of SWS and Pulse Asia, questioned the use of terms like "stationary drive" and "pro-rated", and argued that polling groups should be required to present the methods and findings of the surveys to the public.
I also asserted that it is time "that we demand more accountability from the groups behind these surveys, including their owners, directors and analysts, and who pays for their surveys". And warned that if this is not done, "we will be at the mercy of spin masters and manufactured information”.
The survey firm never rebutted my criticisms so I let it pass.
The Pulse Asia and SWS surveys of January 2010, of course, showed Gibo Teodoro with only a 5% voter support.
Yesterday, the newspapers were again abuzz with the news that Gibo Teodoro had dramatically increased his survey result from 5% to 11% in a survey conducted by StratPOLLS, a company identified in the Manila Times, Malaya and GMANews as owned and financed by former Ambassador Antonio Cabangon Chua.
StratPOLLS claims that Teodoro gained 6 percent from its September 2009 survey. Zambales Rep. Ma. Milagros Magsaysay, spokesperson of Teodoro, immediately said that the improved rating “shows that the people are beginning to appreciate the qualifications and capabilities of Gibo to be president.”
Several experts led by UP Prof. Pernia have already criticized StratPOLLS' findings for its sampling frame and the practice of averaging their data with those of SWS and PULSE even if the data gathering methods and questions are incomparable.
I've tried searching "Stratpolls" in the world wide web and can't find a web page!! And I can't electronically access the Stratpols "September 2009 survey results" either!!
Hmmm.... this smells, feels and looks like an administration PR job again.
The emergence of surveys groups who don't even have a web page, and who refuse to disclose their owners, officers, analysts, and survey data have created serious questions on the reliability of surveys in the Philippines.
And media organizations are not helping ensure transparency and accountability for these new survey upstarts because their "survey results" are legitimized by the tri-media through their news coverage.
It is time that the media, COMELEC, academic institutions, and serious civil society organizations demand transparency and accountability in polling. Survey firms must disclose information and their survey data must also be accessible to the public and not just the COMELEC and political parties are required by RA 9006.
The media can do this by only covering polling groups that make public presentations of their survey results where academicians, statisticians, and the public can question their methodology, sampling design, framing of questions, and data analysis. Those who hide behind slick media releases and media spins of political parties and supporters should be criticized and ignored.
If we cant do this, maybe its better to simply ban all polling during the election period.
Last December 14, 2009 I reacted strongly to a Philippine Star banner story that read - Noynoy's lead in opinion polls drops, Gibo's rating surges - The Center - which claimed that there was a dramatic increase in voter support for Gibo Teodoro due to "the strength of his bold decisions on the Maguindanao massacre and his impressive showing in two presidential debates".
The newspaper headline was based on a survey made by a certain Issues and Advocacy Center headed by Ed Malay which showed that Aquino has a voter support of only 30 percent, Villar has 23 percent, and Teodoro 10 percent.
Malay was quoted as saying that the debates had harmed Noynoy because (these) "exposed the weakness and lack of depth on the basic issues by the neophyte senator when ranged against a more knowledgeable and experienced candidate such as Teodoro who topped the 1985 bar exams.” He also said that there was a detectable "stationary dive" in Aquino ratings and predicted a further tightening of the presidential race in 2010.
My reaction was carried by Philippine Star (http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=533342) and Manila Standard (http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNews.htm?f=2009/december/17/news3.isx&d=/2009/december/17) on December 17, 2009. I criticized the disturbing inconsistency of this survey result with those of SWS and Pulse Asia, questioned the use of terms like "stationary drive" and "pro-rated", and argued that polling groups should be required to present the methods and findings of the surveys to the public.
I also asserted that it is time "that we demand more accountability from the groups behind these surveys, including their owners, directors and analysts, and who pays for their surveys". And warned that if this is not done, "we will be at the mercy of spin masters and manufactured information”.
The survey firm never rebutted my criticisms so I let it pass.
The Pulse Asia and SWS surveys of January 2010, of course, showed Gibo Teodoro with only a 5% voter support.
Yesterday, the newspapers were again abuzz with the news that Gibo Teodoro had dramatically increased his survey result from 5% to 11% in a survey conducted by StratPOLLS, a company identified in the Manila Times, Malaya and GMANews as owned and financed by former Ambassador Antonio Cabangon Chua.
StratPOLLS claims that Teodoro gained 6 percent from its September 2009 survey. Zambales Rep. Ma. Milagros Magsaysay, spokesperson of Teodoro, immediately said that the improved rating “shows that the people are beginning to appreciate the qualifications and capabilities of Gibo to be president.”
Several experts led by UP Prof. Pernia have already criticized StratPOLLS' findings for its sampling frame and the practice of averaging their data with those of SWS and PULSE even if the data gathering methods and questions are incomparable.
I've tried searching "Stratpolls" in the world wide web and can't find a web page!! And I can't electronically access the Stratpols "September 2009 survey results" either!!
Hmmm.... this smells, feels and looks like an administration PR job again.
The emergence of surveys groups who don't even have a web page, and who refuse to disclose their owners, officers, analysts, and survey data have created serious questions on the reliability of surveys in the Philippines.
And media organizations are not helping ensure transparency and accountability for these new survey upstarts because their "survey results" are legitimized by the tri-media through their news coverage.
It is time that the media, COMELEC, academic institutions, and serious civil society organizations demand transparency and accountability in polling. Survey firms must disclose information and their survey data must also be accessible to the public and not just the COMELEC and political parties are required by RA 9006.
The media can do this by only covering polling groups that make public presentations of their survey results where academicians, statisticians, and the public can question their methodology, sampling design, framing of questions, and data analysis. Those who hide behind slick media releases and media spins of political parties and supporters should be criticized and ignored.
If we cant do this, maybe its better to simply ban all polling during the election period.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Analytical Attribution: Gibo and Ondoy
by Dr. Prospero E. de Vera
A few days ago I wrote my blog entitled "Heroic Leadership: Gibo and Ondoy" in response to the surprisingly aggressive attack made by LAKAS-KAMPI strategists on my Strictly Politics year-end commentary on the impact of Ondoy and Pepeng on Philippine politics.
The attack was contained in the Manila Standard article written by Christine Herrera which quoted LAKAS-KAMPI spokesman Dominguez as saying that I was part of a "politically-motivated vilification campaign" against Gibo Teodoro (http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNation.htm?f=2010/january/5/nation1.isx&d=/2010/january/5).
Dominguez also challenged me to "be forthright and tell the public that I (he) was in fact working for another presidential candidate."
After posting my blog on Facebook and getting a rather tepid response from some of my friends, I had planned to let the whole thing go. That was until I learned from friends that the mis-interpreted and obviously politically attributed news release has been carried by several websites and posted all over the internet.
The original Manila Standard article was carried by the Teodoro's campaign website (http://www.gibo.ph/updatefull.aspx?key=G0iyBGcAWD//zGviev35NUwT+3gV2cIs56h86xj+8HZ8uLJ5lZgPHA) and featured in www.politicalarena.com (http://ph.politicalarena.com/gilbert-teodoro/news/mudslinging-ushers-in-campaign-period-by-christine-herrera).
It was also carried by Hataw tabloid in a news story titled "Gibo Di Takaw Publicity (Political Analyst Niresbakan)- (http://www.hatawtabloid.com/news/34-catfrontpage/12955-gibo-di-takaw-publicity-political-analyst-niresbakan), and by the Pilipino Star entitled "Cheap Publicity Binira ng Kampo ni Gibo" (http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=538114&publicationSubCategoryId=92).
The Negros Daily Bulletin, a provincial paper also featured it in a story entitled "Political Wannabees Asked: Public Service not Cheap Publicity Stunts"
(http://www.ndb-online.com/jan0510c1).
And Almar Dangilan in a column in Hataw tabloid declared "Gibo Di Mapagsamantala; at RFID Huwag Katakutan" (http://www.hatawtabloid.com/archive/13033-gibo-di-mapagsamantala-at-rfid-huwag-katakutan).
Not surprisingly, LAKAS-KAMPI strategists used the official government portal (www.gov.ph) and the Philippine Information Agency (PIA) to attack my personal views. Here’s their news release entitled "Lakas Dares Presidential Wannabees: Do Public Service, Not Cheap Publicity Stunts"
(http://www.gov.ph/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=2002598) and (http://pia-misorocccam.blogspot.com/2010/01/pia-dispatch-04-january-2010.html).
The news story added that "de Vera must be talking about his candidate, for a man of his stature we would have expected him to be forthright and tell his viewers that in fact he is working for another presidential candidate. Enough of hypocrisy!!
I am tickled by all the attention. And happy to hear that I am now a "man of stature" who is expected to be "forthright" and tell my viewers that I am working for another presidential candidate.
There are just two problems. First, many of the things mentioned in the article are politically attributed to me. I did not say many of those statements in the television program. I strongly suggest that the LAKAS-KAMPI strategists view the show again and please ascribe to me only those statements that I actually made.
The second problem is that my critics are completely missing the point!!
I am not anti-Gibo. I've always held Gibo Teodoro in high regard as a person. We were panelists in a forum organized by Action for Economic Reforms (AER) about a year ago discussing the post-GMA administration political and economic blueprint and I found him to be a very intelligent and articulate speaker who came well prepared for his presentation. I have also publicly declared that his stock was rising because of his performance in the debates.
Don't attack the messenger, address the message!!
This is about very poor government response during Ondoy and Pepeng. This is about heroic leadership in times of crisis. Let's debate on these issues. And while we’re at it, let's include government accountability for the Maguindanao massacre. Let's talk about accountability for arming civilian volunteers and putting them under the control of recognized local warlords. And let's debate on the whole government policy in Mindanao.
These are the discussions that should be hitting the web, newspapers and tabloids. These are the issues that the people should be reading about.
Unless we start focusing on these important issues, then I cannot help but agree with the comments from friends that Gibo’s strategists are just riding on my airwaves.
A good friend MC Canlas from San Francisco wrote the following about my blog "Heroic Leadership: Gibo and Ondoy". "Gibo is not in the news to propel his rating. To attack you by his strategists is one way of getting in the news. Namumulot ng barya sila. Sori sila, di lang anino ni GMA ang dala nila, multo pa ng masamang administrasyon sa kasaysayan ng bansa"
A few days ago I wrote my blog entitled "Heroic Leadership: Gibo and Ondoy" in response to the surprisingly aggressive attack made by LAKAS-KAMPI strategists on my Strictly Politics year-end commentary on the impact of Ondoy and Pepeng on Philippine politics.
The attack was contained in the Manila Standard article written by Christine Herrera which quoted LAKAS-KAMPI spokesman Dominguez as saying that I was part of a "politically-motivated vilification campaign" against Gibo Teodoro (http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNation.htm?f=2010/january/5/nation1.isx&d=/2010/january/5).
Dominguez also challenged me to "be forthright and tell the public that I (he) was in fact working for another presidential candidate."
After posting my blog on Facebook and getting a rather tepid response from some of my friends, I had planned to let the whole thing go. That was until I learned from friends that the mis-interpreted and obviously politically attributed news release has been carried by several websites and posted all over the internet.
The original Manila Standard article was carried by the Teodoro's campaign website (http://www.gibo.ph/updatefull.aspx?key=G0iyBGcAWD//zGviev35NUwT+3gV2cIs56h86xj+8HZ8uLJ5lZgPHA) and featured in www.politicalarena.com (http://ph.politicalarena.com/gilbert-teodoro/news/mudslinging-ushers-in-campaign-period-by-christine-herrera).
It was also carried by Hataw tabloid in a news story titled "Gibo Di Takaw Publicity (Political Analyst Niresbakan)- (http://www.hatawtabloid.com/news/34-catfrontpage/12955-gibo-di-takaw-publicity-political-analyst-niresbakan), and by the Pilipino Star entitled "Cheap Publicity Binira ng Kampo ni Gibo" (http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=538114&publicationSubCategoryId=92).
The Negros Daily Bulletin, a provincial paper also featured it in a story entitled "Political Wannabees Asked: Public Service not Cheap Publicity Stunts"
(http://www.ndb-online.com/jan0510c1).
And Almar Dangilan in a column in Hataw tabloid declared "Gibo Di Mapagsamantala; at RFID Huwag Katakutan" (http://www.hatawtabloid.com/archive/13033-gibo-di-mapagsamantala-at-rfid-huwag-katakutan).
Not surprisingly, LAKAS-KAMPI strategists used the official government portal (www.gov.ph) and the Philippine Information Agency (PIA) to attack my personal views. Here’s their news release entitled "Lakas Dares Presidential Wannabees: Do Public Service, Not Cheap Publicity Stunts"
(http://www.gov.ph/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=2002598) and (http://pia-misorocccam.blogspot.com/2010/01/pia-dispatch-04-january-2010.html).
The news story added that "de Vera must be talking about his candidate, for a man of his stature we would have expected him to be forthright and tell his viewers that in fact he is working for another presidential candidate. Enough of hypocrisy!!
I am tickled by all the attention. And happy to hear that I am now a "man of stature" who is expected to be "forthright" and tell my viewers that I am working for another presidential candidate.
There are just two problems. First, many of the things mentioned in the article are politically attributed to me. I did not say many of those statements in the television program. I strongly suggest that the LAKAS-KAMPI strategists view the show again and please ascribe to me only those statements that I actually made.
The second problem is that my critics are completely missing the point!!
I am not anti-Gibo. I've always held Gibo Teodoro in high regard as a person. We were panelists in a forum organized by Action for Economic Reforms (AER) about a year ago discussing the post-GMA administration political and economic blueprint and I found him to be a very intelligent and articulate speaker who came well prepared for his presentation. I have also publicly declared that his stock was rising because of his performance in the debates.
Don't attack the messenger, address the message!!
This is about very poor government response during Ondoy and Pepeng. This is about heroic leadership in times of crisis. Let's debate on these issues. And while we’re at it, let's include government accountability for the Maguindanao massacre. Let's talk about accountability for arming civilian volunteers and putting them under the control of recognized local warlords. And let's debate on the whole government policy in Mindanao.
These are the discussions that should be hitting the web, newspapers and tabloids. These are the issues that the people should be reading about.
Unless we start focusing on these important issues, then I cannot help but agree with the comments from friends that Gibo’s strategists are just riding on my airwaves.
A good friend MC Canlas from San Francisco wrote the following about my blog "Heroic Leadership: Gibo and Ondoy". "Gibo is not in the news to propel his rating. To attack you by his strategists is one way of getting in the news. Namumulot ng barya sila. Sori sila, di lang anino ni GMA ang dala nila, multo pa ng masamang administrasyon sa kasaysayan ng bansa"
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Heroic Leadership: Gibo and Ondoy
by Dr. Prospero E. de Vera
As the nation was celebrating the martyrdom of Jose Rizal last December 30, I had the good fortune of being invited by Pia Hontiveros to do the 2009 year-end political analysis in her award winning program Strictly Politics.
The topics covered a wide range of events - Cory Aquino's death, the tightening presidential and vice-presidential races, GMA's congressional run, the devastation caused by Ondoy and Pepeng - that happened in 2009 and predicting what's in store for the nation in 2010.
I had expected to get flack for predicting that Loren Legarda would overtake Mar Roxas in the January 2010 survey and win the vice-presidential race unless Mar is able to quickly re-establish his achievements and re-brand himself as more than "the man who gave way to Noynoy Aquino".
To my surprise the comments came from an unexpected source - LAKAS-KAMPI Chair and Gibo Teodoro spokesperson Miguel Dominguez who accused me of being part of a politically- motivated vilification campaign against the administration candidate.
In a Manila Standard news story (January 5, 2010) entitled "Mudslinging Ushers in Campaign Period", Dominguez thundered:
“We watched with disbelief how Professor Prospero de Vera shot down the chances of Teodoro in the presidential elections for the failure of his strategists to milk and exploit for free publicity the devastation wrought by the two typhoons.”
The news story continued:
"Dominguez challenged De Vera to be forthright and tell the public that he was in fact working for another presidential candidate.
He said Teodoro marshaled the government’s limited resources amid an overwhelming tragedy, and his “conduct is above politics and beyond moral reproach.”
“While image does matter to him [Teodoro], he doesn’t consciously and deliberately create it for political purposes. To Gibo, character is image. Character is everything,” Dominguez added.
Wow!! I would have loved the media attention given to my analysis except for the fact that Dominguez and the LAKAS-KAMPI strategists completely missed my point.
I did not shoot down the "chances of Teodoro in the presidential elections" and I did not say that his strategists failed "to milk and exploit for free publicity the devastation wrought by the two typhoons".
I simply said that Ondoy and Pepeng brought out the best in the ordinary Filipino who helped each other survive the devastation, and showed the worst in government for failing to immediately rescue people and responding too slowly to the disaster. Ask any ordinary Pinoy, ask especially those trapped in Provident Village, and they will say exactly the same thing.
I also said that had Gibo Teodoro put on a life-jacket, got into a rubber boat, and helped rescue old women and children from the floods, the image of Gibo's heroic rescue would have been worth more than a thousand television ads and propelled him straight into the thick of the presidential race.
Filipinos expect their leaders to do heroic acts during times of crisis. And leaders who do heroic acts go on to win elections!
The image of Defense Secretary Ramon Magsaysay cradling the bloodied body of Moises Padilla in 1951 was instrumental in propelling him to the presidency two years later. In his campaign for the presidency, Magsaysay would climax his speeches by declaring emotionally: "When I carried the body of Moises Padilla in my arms, it was not the body of Padilla but the body of the humble people of my country" (Time Magazine).
This was not milking and exploiting events for free publicity. This was Magsaysay's way of showing heroic leadership in times of crisis"
And Gibo Teodoro, as NDCC chair and Defense Secretary, could have easily shown this heroic leadership element during Ondoy and Pepeng because disaster management is part of his job.
Alas, Gibo is no Magsaysay.
Or maybe Gibo's strategists can learn from their fellow LAKAS-KAMPI stalwart Senator Lito Lapid's Pampanga gubernatorial run in the 1990's. Lito Lapid felt compelled as he swung from a helicopter to rescue his cabalens from the devastation of lahar. "Leon Guerrero" went on to become Pampanga governor.
Like Magsaysay, Lito Lapid can easily win today as Pampanga governor should he choose to run.
And by the way Governor Dominguez, I am not in the payroll of any presidential candidate.
As the nation was celebrating the martyrdom of Jose Rizal last December 30, I had the good fortune of being invited by Pia Hontiveros to do the 2009 year-end political analysis in her award winning program Strictly Politics.
The topics covered a wide range of events - Cory Aquino's death, the tightening presidential and vice-presidential races, GMA's congressional run, the devastation caused by Ondoy and Pepeng - that happened in 2009 and predicting what's in store for the nation in 2010.
I had expected to get flack for predicting that Loren Legarda would overtake Mar Roxas in the January 2010 survey and win the vice-presidential race unless Mar is able to quickly re-establish his achievements and re-brand himself as more than "the man who gave way to Noynoy Aquino".
To my surprise the comments came from an unexpected source - LAKAS-KAMPI Chair and Gibo Teodoro spokesperson Miguel Dominguez who accused me of being part of a politically- motivated vilification campaign against the administration candidate.
In a Manila Standard news story (January 5, 2010) entitled "Mudslinging Ushers in Campaign Period", Dominguez thundered:
“We watched with disbelief how Professor Prospero de Vera shot down the chances of Teodoro in the presidential elections for the failure of his strategists to milk and exploit for free publicity the devastation wrought by the two typhoons.”
The news story continued:
"Dominguez challenged De Vera to be forthright and tell the public that he was in fact working for another presidential candidate.
He said Teodoro marshaled the government’s limited resources amid an overwhelming tragedy, and his “conduct is above politics and beyond moral reproach.”
“While image does matter to him [Teodoro], he doesn’t consciously and deliberately create it for political purposes. To Gibo, character is image. Character is everything,” Dominguez added.
Wow!! I would have loved the media attention given to my analysis except for the fact that Dominguez and the LAKAS-KAMPI strategists completely missed my point.
I did not shoot down the "chances of Teodoro in the presidential elections" and I did not say that his strategists failed "to milk and exploit for free publicity the devastation wrought by the two typhoons".
I simply said that Ondoy and Pepeng brought out the best in the ordinary Filipino who helped each other survive the devastation, and showed the worst in government for failing to immediately rescue people and responding too slowly to the disaster. Ask any ordinary Pinoy, ask especially those trapped in Provident Village, and they will say exactly the same thing.
I also said that had Gibo Teodoro put on a life-jacket, got into a rubber boat, and helped rescue old women and children from the floods, the image of Gibo's heroic rescue would have been worth more than a thousand television ads and propelled him straight into the thick of the presidential race.
Filipinos expect their leaders to do heroic acts during times of crisis. And leaders who do heroic acts go on to win elections!
The image of Defense Secretary Ramon Magsaysay cradling the bloodied body of Moises Padilla in 1951 was instrumental in propelling him to the presidency two years later. In his campaign for the presidency, Magsaysay would climax his speeches by declaring emotionally: "When I carried the body of Moises Padilla in my arms, it was not the body of Padilla but the body of the humble people of my country" (Time Magazine).
This was not milking and exploiting events for free publicity. This was Magsaysay's way of showing heroic leadership in times of crisis"
And Gibo Teodoro, as NDCC chair and Defense Secretary, could have easily shown this heroic leadership element during Ondoy and Pepeng because disaster management is part of his job.
Alas, Gibo is no Magsaysay.
Or maybe Gibo's strategists can learn from their fellow LAKAS-KAMPI stalwart Senator Lito Lapid's Pampanga gubernatorial run in the 1990's. Lito Lapid felt compelled as he swung from a helicopter to rescue his cabalens from the devastation of lahar. "Leon Guerrero" went on to become Pampanga governor.
Like Magsaysay, Lito Lapid can easily win today as Pampanga governor should he choose to run.
And by the way Governor Dominguez, I am not in the payroll of any presidential candidate.
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